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2 PDFs for CTOs,CISOs & CEOs
5 Reasons Q-DAy is approaching Quickly - 7pg
For CISOs and CTOs. Dr. Hartmut Neven, the founder & Head of Google's Quantum Artificial Intelligence Lab warns that Q-Day (when commercial quantum computers break current encryption is closer than widely believed, based on these five converging threads of evidence:
1. Doubly Exponential Hardware Growth (Neven's Law)
- Dr. Neven posits that quantum computing power, termed Neven's Law, grows at a doubly exponential rate. This is faster than Moore's Law's single exponential growth, stemming from the simultaneous exponential advantage of quantum mechanics (n qubits $\rightarrow$ $2^n$ states) and exponential hardware improvements.
2. Quantum Error Correction Breakthrough
- December 2024, Google's 105-qubit Willow chip achieved "below-threshold" performance, halving the logical error rate as surface code arrays scaled (e.g., 3x3 to 7x7). This breakthrough solved the fundamental physics barrier of error correction, confirming fault-tolerant quantum computing is now an engineering challenge (Neven's "copy-paste" argument). This demonstrated error suppression during system growth proves large-scale fault-tolerant quantum computing is achievable.
3. Collapsing Resource Estimates for RSA-2048
- Google's Craig Gidney estimated in May 2025 that factoring RSA-2048 now requires under one million noisy physical qubits in under a week, a sharp drop from the 2012 estimate of roughly one billion.
4. Accelerating Expert and Government Timelines
5. Google's End-of-Decade Roadmap
The CEO’s Guide to HNDL (Harvest Now, Decrypt Later) 6 pg
The Threat: Adversaries are employing "Harvest Now, Decrypt Later" (HNDL) to steal encrypted data, anticipating decryption via powerful quantum computers between 2028 and 2030.
- The Risk: This poses an urgent, silent risk for long-lived, high-value data (e.g., patient records, trade secrets).
- CEO Action Items:
- Immediately conduct a cryptographic inventory.
- Prioritize sensitive data for protection.
- Adopt crypto-agile and hybrid systems.
- Coordinate Post-Quantum Cryptography (PQC) roadmaps with vendors.
Consequence of Delay: Delaying these actions ensures institutional risk.
Podcast re Google's Quantum AI Lab Founder & VP Engineering
For CEOs - 5 Min.
Quantum "Q-Day"—when quantum computers break global encryption—is an imminent threat,
- Accelerated by Google's Willow chip and algorithmic breakthroughs.
- Dr. Hartmut Neven warns of the doubly exponential trap: sudden surges follow flat progress. The Willow chip (late 2024) solved quantum error correction, making development a scaling problem.
- Simultaneously, the qubit requirement to break RSA dropped under one million (a thousandfold reduction) due to smarter math (Craig Gidney, 2025).
The critical threat is "harvest now, decrypt later." Adversaries are storing encrypted data (IP, patient records) to unlock with powerful quantum machines, potentially by 2029.
- Data needing four years of secrecy is already compromised.
Organizations must:
- Gain Visibility: Inventory vulnerable encryption systems (RSA/ECC).
- Triage: Prioritize long-shelf-life data and migrate to NIST post-quantum standards (e.g., ML-KEM) before 2030.
Reliance on slow tech progress is not a valid security strategy.
For CISO & CTO - 19min
Our most popular podcast. A real eye-opener that gives CISOs and CTOs the insight they need. Quantum computing is accelerating "Q-day"—the breaking of current RSA encryption—likely by the late 2020s. This threat is driven by: Nevin's Law (doubly exponential power growth), proven error correction (Google's 2020 Willow chip), algorithmic collapse (fewer than 1 million qubits needed to break RSA 2048), global consensus (NIST/NSA recommend deprecation post-2030), and Harvest Now, Decrypt Later (HNDL) attacks on long-life secrets.
Executive Action Required:
Delaying is a critical asset protection failure. Executives must immediately:
- Inventory: Audit all systems for RSA use.
- Prioritize: Migrate high-value, long-life secrets first.
- Audit Vendors: Demand clear Post-Quantum Cryptography (PQC) roadmaps.
- Budget: Fund phased migration now to prevent a catastrophic 2029 panic.
Security must act now to avoid a catastrophic failure.
Our CISO & CTO - 29 min
If you like the 19 min video, this takes a deeper dive and is 10 minutes longer. Quantum computing is rapidly accelerating "Q-day"—the breaking of current RSA encryption—potentially by the late 2020s. This threat is driven by:
- Nevin's Law: Doubly exponential advancement in quantum power.
- Error Correction: Scalability proven by Google's 2020 Willow chip.
- Algorithmic Collapse: Qubits needed to break RSA-2048 dropped below 1 million.
- Global Consensus: NIST/NSA concur, recommending RSA deprecation post-2030.
- Harvest Now, Decrypt Later (HNDL): Bad actors are currently stealing RSA-encrypted data with a shelf life over three years for later decryption.
Executive Call to Action:
Delaying action is a fatal, asset protection crisis. Executives must immediately:
- 1. Inventory: Audit all systems for RSA usage.
- 2. Prioritize Risk: Migrate high-value, long-life secrets first.
- 3. Audit Vendors: Demand clear Post-Quantum Cryptography (PQC) roadmaps.
- 4. Budget: Fund phased migration now to avoid a catastrophic panic in 2029.
Security must act now to avoid a catastrophic "whoops" moment.